2017 NCAA Tournament Game Projections

By: Bryan Povlinski on March 14, 2017

As you fill out your bracket for the 2016 NCAA tournament you might get stuck on a few games that you can’t decide on or that seem like virtual toss-ups. Enter the 2016 NCAA Tournament Game Projection Tool. This visualization is designed to help you analyze a particular matchup and see a projected score and the probability the team you’ve selected will win. Here’s how to use the tool:

1. Select the team you’re interested in analyzing in the Selected Team box.

2. If you’re interested in projected scores against any other NCAA tournament team jump down to the Opponent chart to see score projections against all possible opponents. If you’d like to limit the opponent list by region or seed you can do so using the filters on the left.

3. If you’re interested in the probability the team you select will win a particular matchup you can choose your opponent on the top right. The Team Win % will estimate the probability that the selected team will win.

The projections are based largely on point differential (proven to be one of the best predictive factors in determining the ability of an NCAA team) with a small adjustment for strength of schedule. The Opponent list is sorted based on this basic ranking system.

Let me know in the comments if you have any suggestions!