MLB Fantasy Baseball Projection Tool
As much fun as daily fantasy sports can be, the truth is that it’s not an easy game. Sites like Fanduel and DraftKings make it really simple to sign up and enter a lineup each day just by going with your gut, but how effective can you really be if the only resource you’re using is your intuition? The top daily fantasy players that are putting hundreds if not thousands of dollars at risk each not are certainly not simply building their lineups on a whim. If you’re not putting in the time with research and understanding the trends of the game or using some kind of system to take into account as much relevant data you’re going to be at a disadvantage. That’s where Spreadsheet-Sports comes in. Our MLB Custom Projection Tool is designed to minimize your research time and maximize the amount of relevant data you’re able to use for your daily lineups. The expectation if you purchase the tool should not be that you’re going to automatically start winning GPP’s consistently. There’s no guarantee that using the Custom Projection Tool will make you money. It will, however, give you the flexibility to create customized projections using the most important factors that can affect game-to-game performance and the tool will generate the mathematically optimal lineup for you based on your projections. The spreadsheet framework will give you a tool on par with what the best players in the game are using – the rest is up to you to use the tool to it’s full potential and provide the crucial missing pieces of intelligence you need to consistently create winning lineups.
The Daily Fantasy Baseball Custom Projection Tool is an Excel-based tool that you download and run on your own computer. It requires Microsoft Excel 2007 or later (including support for Excel for Mac 2011 and 2016). You don’t need any prior knowledge on how to use Excel, but it will definitely help if you’re comfortable in that environment.
The Custom Projection Tool has 4 main components:
- Automated Starting Lineup Identification
- Custom Projection Engine
- Mathematically Optimal Lineup (with the ability to create as many “next-best” lineups as you’d like)
- Lineup Generator that allows you to find ALL lineup combinations from a limited pool of preferred players
Automated Starting Lineup Identification
The Custom Projection spreadsheet contains a live connection to official lineups posted online before every game. For later games for which official lineups are not yet released you can manually set the lineups based on your own knowledge or allow the tool to assume the regular starters will play. Here’s the Lineup interface:
You have the ability to exclude teams if you’re playing in early-only or late-only contests or if games are expected to be postponed due to weather. In addition, you can exclude players that you know you don’t want included in your optimal lineup or add projected points to players if you just have a hunch that a certain player is going to have a big game and you want to guarantee they’re included in your lineup. You can also “guarantee” certain players in your lineups if you have a core set of guys that you’ve identified and would like the tool to fill in the rest of the lineup. Finally, you can add in your own custom projections for use in the tool.
Custom Projection Engine
With the Custom Projection Tool you’ll create your baseline projections for players by using a weighted average (where you have the flexibility to choose the weights) of fantasy points per game over the batters’
- Preseason Projection
- Current Season
- Last 30 Days
- Last 14 Days
- Last 7 Days
For Pitchers you will be able to choose Career or Current Season.
You’ll then be able to adjust your projections based on each player’s historical performance data on some of the most important factors in baseball including:
- Opposing Pitcher Overall Ability
- Opposing Pitcher Throwing Hand
- Opposing Pitcher Flyball/Groundball tendency
- Opposing Pitcher Power vs. Finesse
- Vegas Betting Line
- Vegas Betting Total
- Historical Batter vs. Pitcher matchups
For more on the way these adjustments are calculated you can refer to the MLB Custom Projection Tool User Guide. I’ve also created a brief video walk-through so you can see the tool in action.
Optimal Lineups (and stack settings)
The final step is to run your projections through Excel Solver to get a lineup that maximizes your projected points while staying within the salary cap requirements and stipulation that you have a maximum of 4 players from a single team. You will also be able to indicate a particular team that you’d like to stack players from if you think a team has a favorable matchup. You can choose up to 3 teams from which to stack players and the number of players you’d like to stack.
Once you get a recommended lineup you will be able to go back to any previous step and tweak your settings until you settle on a lineup you like.
You also have the ability to generate multiple lineups at once in our Multi-Lineup Optimizer tool. This file is optimized to speed up the lineup creation process and you can choose the number of lineups you’d like to receive. You can then upload these lineups directly to FanDuel or DraftKings through a CSV that automatically gets created with your lineups.
Finally, you can specify 3-6 players at each position as your preferred list of players. From that list – our Lineup Generator tool will produce all possible lineup combinations with those players. The tool will filter out any over the cap lineups and rank the remaining lineups by total projected points.
You can upload the lineups CSV to DraftKings or FanDuel.