Basketball Projection Tool Guide

By: Bryan Povlinski

Video Walk-Through

How to Get Past Common Excel Errors

How To Generate Multiple Lineups Using the Multi-Lineup Optimizer

The overall philosophy behind the Custom Projection Tool is to give daily fantasy players the ability to blend up-to-the-minute news and intuition with historical data to generate the best possibly lineup. On one hand it’s easy to let various biases creep in if you’re simply building lineups based on intuition and ignoring any historical data. But if you rely solely on a model based on historical data to select your lineup you’re missing major value opportunities based on injuries or lineup changes on a given night. The Custom Projection Tool is built upon historical data for the current NBA season, but gives you the ability to put your own touch on the numbers based on your knowledge of the daily fantasy landscape.

There are 2 major functions performed by the tool:

1. Generate a projection for every possible fantasy player using a blend of historical data and the adjustments that you apply

2. Run the projections through an optimization “Solver” model to find the lineup that is projected to score the highest number of points that stays within all of the roster parameters (total salary, positional requirements, etc) of each fantasy site.

Here’s an overview of the different components of the tool and how you can use to it generate optimal lineups

Projections

Projections

Here you’ll see the player pool just as you would on the FanDuel or DraftKings site with all available players to choose from on a given night. You’ll see all of the various factors associated with the game and each player like the Vegas lines, injury status, game location, and days of rest. For a detailed explanation of all of the available data see the end of this guide. I want to focus on workflow before we get into the details of the math behind the adjustments.

Fantasy Site Setting

In the top left corner there is a setting for Fantasy Site. Currently we support FanDuel and DraftKings, but support for other, smaller fantasy sites will be coming soon. The tool will only allow you to create lineups for one site at a time so be sure to set the fantasy site first so all of the scoring settings are specific to the site you’re building a lineup for.

Today’s Games Refresh

Refresh

After you have your fantasy site set you’ll want to move to the Today’s Games Refresh tab to get everything up to date for today’s games. Simply click the Refresh Data button and Excel will connect to the websites and API’s that store the player pool data on FanDuel and DraftKings, injury information from Rotoworld, betting and schedule data from www.sportsdatabase.com, expected starting lineups from Rotowire. This will typically take about 20-50 seconds depending on your computer and version of Excel. You must be connected to the internet for the refresh to run, and there are instructions throughout the sheet (and in the Troubleshooting Tips tab) on what to do if you run into an error during refresh

You can also use the controls on this page to exclude certain games or teams from your player pool. Next to each game there is a 1 (by default) in the green “Use for Optimal Lineup” column. If you’re playing in a late-only contest or something other than the standard contest you can exclude games that are not part of your contest by changing that value to a 0. It will essentially zero out projections for every player in those games. You can also exclude certain teams (if you think a team has a really bad matchup and don’t want to include anyone from that team in your lineup) by adding the team abbreviation to the “Exclude Individual Teams” column. So if you don’t want the Pacers included you would add IND to that column. Check the Projections tab if you’re unsure of a team abbreviation.

Optimal Lineup

Optimal Lineup

Once you’ve configured your projection settings and refreshed all the data you’re ready to see what the optimal lineup looks like. Navigate to the optimal lineup tab for the site you’re building a lineup for and hit the “Find Optimal Lineup” button. You shouldn’t need to make any other changes on this tab. All of the values in the columns to the left are used by the Solver plugin to generate the lineup so changing them manually will only cause problems.

If you run into an error on this tab please see the Troubleshooting Tips tab for instructions.

The spreadsheet will take 10-30 seconds to process the optimal lineup and you’ll get a pop-up saying that it found a solution. Hit OK and then you’ll see your optimal lineup for the night based on all of the projections you created back on the Projections tab. You’ll see the total projection for your lineup, and the algorithm is set to provide the highest possible projected points. *Technical Note* – there is a chance the solution is not the absolute highest projected points based on the projections provided. A linear solving method is used and it gets to the maximum in a reasonable amount of time. Much more powerful computing tools can run through millions of possible lineup iterations and find the absolute highest, but our Excel will find the best lineup it can (which is often truly the best and when it’s not it’s only 1-2 projected points away). Also, the 4 player per team limit on FanDuel is not built into the Optimal Lineup. It slows the process down considerably to have to check through every single team so if you get a lineup with more than 4 players you can simply exclude the player with the lowest value in the next section.

Now you can start to think about making changes to your lineup if the algorithm gives you players that you’re not very confident in or you’re not happy with your lineup. To do that – move over to the Player Adjustments tab.

Player Adjustments

Player Adjustments
Note: The only places that you should make changes to are highlighted in blue. If it’s not blue – don’t make changes to the cell

Minutes Adjustments

This is where you can start to factor your own research and hunches into the tool. If you’re using season average stats or anything longer than the last 5 games as your base projection (more on how to set that below) you’ll probably want to add minutes adjustments for players that will see a different level of playing time on this given night than they normally do. In the example above, if you know that J.R. Smith and Carmelo Anthony are out of the Knicks lineup for tonight you might want to adjust Tim Hardaway Jr.’s minutes up. When you add his name to the “Players with Minutes Adjustments” section you’ll see his average minutes appear. In the New Minutes column you would enter the expected minutes for tonight. There’s not really an exact science to this because coaches change their rotations all of the time, but I would suggest looking up past games in which a certain starter was out and see who picked up the slack. Rotoworld is always a great source to give you information on situations like this. When you add in the new minutes for a player the tool will add or subtract to the final projection based on (Change in Minutes * Average Fantasy Points per Minute) for each player.

If a player doesn’t show up when you type him in it’s likely that the name is spelled incorrectly. Look back at the Projections tab for the correct spelling.

Hunch Adjustments

In this section you can add or subtract value to a player using your own hunches or research. Say you think Stephen Curry is set for a really big game and he’ll definitely outscore his average fantasy points per game in this given matchup. You can manually add 10 points to Curry’s projection (or whatever value you like) to see if that puts him over the edge and into your optimal lineup. You can also subtract points from a player if you think their situation is even worse than the numbers say. Simply add the player’s name and you’ll see their current projection appear in the “New Projection” column. When you enter the value you’d like to add or subtract in the “Manual Fantasy Points Adjustment” column you’ll see that New Projection change.

Lineup Guarantee

If you’d like to build your lineup around a core group of players regardless of their projection you can add their names to the “Lineup Guarantee” section. The players listed here will *always* appear in your optimal lineup.

*There are still salary cap and positional constraints that the tool must abide by so if you put the 6 top players into the Lineup Guarantee section it’s not going to allow you to go over the salary cap. Some of those players will simply not get included and a lineup will be created with those top 3-4 players selected in the Lineup Guarantee column.

Exclude Players

If there are players that you don’t want in your lineup under any circumstances – add them to this column. It will set their projection to zero and will not be chosen for the optimal lineup.

Injury List

The injury list and blurbs are coming from Rotoworld and will be refreshed whenever you click the “Refresh Data” button on the Today’s Games Refresh tab. Any player listed here will be marked as Out and their projection will be set to 0. Sometimes a blurb will actually indicate the player will play. Most of those are captured and set correctly within the tool, but some can fall through the cracks based on the text that’s used. Take a look at this list and delete any players that are listed that you know are going to play. Ultimately, you shouldn’t have to do much with it if it’s capturing all of the injuries you would expect.

Depth Chart Adjustments

Depth Chart

This is a new feature to the spreadsheet that’s designed to capture a lot of the adjustments based on recent injuries. What you’ll see on this tab are the suggested injury replacements for any player on the injury list and the new minutes they are expected to play. These are automated adjustments so they may not reflect very recent changes in a team’s rotation, and some of them may be so far down on the depth chart already that it won’t matter. However, this is a quick way to see what players might get extra minutes for that night’s games due to injury. If some of these look wrong to you you can simply delete the replacement player from this tab. Anything in blue can be edited. You also have the option of turning this tab on or off completely. If you want to adjust minutes all on your own you can do so on the Player Adjustments tab and turn the Depth Chart Adjustments off on the Projections tab. The value under “Depth Chart Adjustment” is the value that will be added to the Replacement Player’s custom projection based on the new minutes and their average fantasy points per minute.

How To Customize Projections with Adjustments for Betting Totals, Opponent vs. Position, Game Location and More

adjustments

 

Base Projection

In the green box for Base Projection in the upper left corner you’ll determine how the base projections are calculated for each player. You’ll notice there are several options for different time periods and ways to summarize the data. The time periods are based on games played for each player so if a player gets injured for two weeks it will go back to the games played before the injury and calculate the last x games played. The preseason projection is based on data from ESPN.com’s preseason fantasy projections.

The way data gets summarized is either by average, floor, or ceiling. The floor is defined as the 10th percentile of fantasy points scored during the time period selected. Conversely, the ceiling is the 90th percentile of fantasy points scored during the time period. The best way to explain the percentile calculation is that 10% of the player’s fantasy scores are below the value for”Floor” and 90% of the scores are below the “Ceiling” value. Average is just as you would expect – the sum of fantasy points scored divided by the number of games played.

You can also combine or blend different time periods and different summation methods. If you’d like the time period to be a blend between the Last 5 games and the season average you would enter 0.5 in both the Season Average and Last 5 Games Average boxes. If you’d like to weight it more towards the Season Average you could use 0.75 under Season and 0.25 under Last 5 Games. The key is that the total in the entire Base Projection box should add up to 1.

More testing needs to be done to see exactly how the different methods perform, but in theory the Ceiling values would be useful for constructing a GPP lineup and the Floor values would provide more consistency for a head-to-head or 50/50 lineup.

The default settings will be loaded each time the spreadsheet gets updated and that is what I would recommend as the best general settings, but it’s up to you to test and customize different settings based on your playing strategy.

Adjustments

The Adjustments section is in the yellow box on the top. You can choose which ones you’d like to use and apply to every player in the “Use?” columns to the right of each adjustment. The Adjustments that I would most recommend using are turned off by default. Using every adjustment is actually counter-productive because several of the adjustments can overlap with each other. For example, the Vegas adjustments should not all be used – either use the Total and Line adjustments together or the Projected Points adjustment on its own. Here’s the math behind each adjustment:

Vegas Line

The Vegas Line Adjustment can be applied at the Team or Individual Level depending on the setting in the Method column.

Team – Each team’s average Vegas line from all previous games is calculated and compared to their Vegas line for this particular game. A Vegas Line worse (more of an underdog) than the team’s average Vegas Line will adjust that teams’ players downward. Here’s an example: The Bulls are a 2 point underdog against the Warriors at home, but on average they are a 4 point favorite across all previous games. That’s a 6 point difference on the negative side. Those 6 points would get multiplied by .01 and subtracted from 1 to give a final adjustment value of 0.94. All Bulls players would have their Base Projection by 0.94 if you choose to use this adjustment.

Individual – Using the Individual method of the Vegas line adjustments compares how well each individual player has performed in games with a similar line to that players’ season average fantasy points. So if Derrick Rose is playing for the Bulls against the Warriors and the Bulls are a 2 point underdog the individual Vegas line adjustment is going to compare average fantasy points for Rose in games played with a line between 3.5 and -3.5 to his average across all games. So if he averaged 30 fantasy points in games between 3.5 and -3.5 and 40 fantasy points in all other games his adjustment would be 0.75. Vegas lines are bucketed into the following groups:

-10 and above
-3.5 to -10
3.5 to -3.5
10 to 3.5
10 and above

Vegas Total

The Vegas Total Adjustment can be applied at the Team or Individual Level depending on the setting in the Method column.

Team – Each team’s average Vegas total from all previous games is calculated and compared to their Vegas total for this particular game. A Vegas total lower than the team’s average Vegas total will adjust that teams’ players downward. Here’s an example: The Pacers are playing in a game with a total of 202 against the Lakers, but on average Pacers games have had a total of 195. That’s a 7 point difference on the positive side. Those 7 points would get multiplied by .01 and subtracted from 1 to give a final adjustment value of 1.07. All Pacers players would have their Base Projection by 1.07 if you choose to use this adjustment.

Individual – Using the Individual method of the Vegas total adjustments compares how well each individual player has performed in games with a similar line to that players’ season average fantasy points. So if David West is playing for the Pacers with a total of 202 the individual Vegas total adjustment is going to compare average fantasy points for West in games played with a total between 196 and 203 to his average across all games. So if he averaged 40 fantasy points in games between 196 and 203 and 30 fantasy points in all other games his adjustment would be 1.25. Vegas totals are bucketed into the following groups:

192 and under
196 to 192
203 to 196
207 to 203
207 and above

Vegas Projected Points

Vegas Projected Points is calculated using the line and the total to get a projected score for each team. So if the Rockets and Clippers are playing in a game with a 210 total and the Rockets are favored by 4 then the projected points for the Rockets is 107 and the projected score for the Clippers is 103.

The Vegas Projected Points Adjustment can be applied at the Team or Individual Level depending on the setting in the Method column.

Team – Each team’s average Vegas projected points from all previous games is calculated and compared to their Vegas projected points for this particular game. A Vegas projected points lower than the team’s average Vegas projected points will adjust that teams’ players downward. Here’s an example: The Thunder are playing in a game in which their projected points is 100, but on average the Thunder games have projected points of 104. That’s a 4 point difference on the negative side. Those 4 points would get multiplied by .01 and subtracted from 1 to give a final adjustment value of 0.96. All Thunder players would have their Base Projection by 0.96 if you choose to use this adjustment.

Individual – Using the Individual method of the Vegas projected points adjustments compares how well each individual player has performed in games with a similar line to that players’ season average fantasy points. So if Kevin Durant is playing for the Thunder with a projected points of 100 the individual Vegas projected points adjustment is going to compare average fantasy points for Durant in games played with a projected points between 98 and 101 to his average across all games. So if he averaged 40 fantasy points in games between 98 and 101 and 50 fantasy points in all other games his adjustment would be 0.8. Vegas projected points are bucketed into the following groups:

95 and under
98 to 95
101 to 98
104 to 101
104 and above

Rest

The Rest Adjustment can be applied at the League or Individual Level depending on the setting in the Method column.

League – The league rest adjustment is very straightforward. I analyzed all individual games from the 2013-2014 season and found that, in aggregate, players score 1.025 points more with at least a day of rest and 0.975 points with no rest. So if a player is in a back-to-back they get their base projection multiplied by 0.975. If they’re playing on at least 1 day of rest they have their projection multiplied by 1.025.

Individual – Similar to the Vegas adjustments, the player’s fantasy points in previous games with the same amount of rest are compared against the player’s average fantasy points in all previous games. So if Blake Griffin averages 44 fantasy points with rest and 40 fantasy points in all other games he would get an adjustment of 1.1 if the current night’s game is on at least one day of rest.

Site

The Site Adjustment can be applied at the League or Individual Level depending on the setting in the Method column.

League – The league site adjustment is very straightforward. I analyzed all individual games from the 2013-2014 season and found that, in aggregate, players score 1.04 points more at home and 0.96 points on the road. So if a player is at home they get their base projection multiplied by 1.04. If they’re playing on the road they have their projection multiplied by 0.96.

Individual – Similar to the Vegas adjustments, the player’s fantasy points in previous games at the same location are compared against the player’s average fantasy points in all previous games. So if James Harden averages 50 fantasy points at home and 45 fantasy points in all other games he would get an adjustment of 1.1 if the current night’s game is a home game.

Opponent Position

Many other sites calculate the opponent/position statistic as the raw average points scored against each opponent/position. We calculate things a bit differently because I don’t think it’s fair to compare average points across the league because of the different level of competitions teams face. The way we look at it is each player has their season average fantasy points calculated before each game. If Stephen Curry averages 40 fantasy points and he’s held to 30 fantasy points against the Grizzlies then that shows the Grizzlies are better than average at defending point guards. All of the point guard results against the Grizzlies are aggregated and the total expected fantasy points are compared to the actual total fantasy points. So if point guards against the Grizzlies were “expected” to score 1,000 points in the 50 individual games against the Grizzlies and they actually scored 950 then 950/1000 = 0.95. Going forward, point guards against the Grizzlies would have their base projection multiplied by 0.95.

One enhancement we made to this calculation is that all games in which a player plays more than 10 minutes different than their season average minutes are thrown out of the calculation. That avoids the issue where a player like Russell Westbrook only scored 7 fantasy points against the Clippers because he got hurt in the first quarter doesn’t make the Clippers defense against point guards look incredible because they held Westbrook to 35 points below his average.

Matchup History

This adjustment looks at each individual players past results against the same team. It will only get applied if the player has played in at least 2 previous games against a team in the same season so it’s only relevant for a small percentage of games. The player’s average fantasy points against that team is compared to his average fantasy points against all other teams. So if Chandler Parsons scores 25 points on average in all games but 35 points against the Rockets then his Matchup History Adjustment would be 35/25 = 1.4. His base projection would get multiplied by 1.4 in a future game against the Rockets.

Depth Chart

The calculation is explained in the Depth Chart adjustment section above. If this is turned on, the automated depth chart adjustments will be applied.

Last 2 Minutes Adjustment and Last 5 Minutes Adjustment

This adjustment is useful if you’re using a Base Projection of Last 15 games or Season Average. If you’re using a shorter period of time then it’s best to leave this adjustment off. What this does is compares each player’s season average minutes with their average minutes across the last 2 games (or last 5 games). So if Tony Wroten has been playing 20 minutes a game for the season, but across his last 5 he’s averaged 30 minutes per game then his base projection would get multiplied by 30/20 = 1.5. This is helpful to better project players on teams whose rotations have changed significantly due to injury or players moving up or down the depth chart.

Usage Rate

The way I calculate Usage Rate is different than the generally accepted formula that you can find on the web. The problem with that formula based on the way I was interested in applying it for fantasy is that it’s calculated per possession played. So if a player only plays 5 possessions in a game and takes a shot attempt on 4 of those 5 possessions their Usage Rate, by the true definition, is going to be incredibly high. To me, that’s not useful as a comparison to someone who’s playing 75% of the game but has a slightly lower per possession rate. I’ve defined Usage Rate as a percentage of FGAs, FTs, and ASTs (with FTs and ASTs weighted less than FGA) each player gets as a % of their teams totals in those categories over time. So for a given team the total Usage Rate should add up to 100%. Now a guy like Russell Westbrook might account for 28% of his team’s stats in those categories and a player like Jeremy Lamb (who might shoot a lot when he’s on the floor so his traditional Usage Rate might be high) only accounts for 1-2%. Now when a player is listed as out due to injury I can sum up the missing Usage and distribute it to the remaining players on the team. Usage gets distributed according to their existing ratio so guys like Westbrook and Durant would pick up the bulk of the Usage if Serge Ibaka was out, but everyone on the Thunder would get bumped up slightly.

Here’s a concrete example of how this gets applied. Kevin Durant is expected to miss tonight’s game. Say he’s averaged 25% of the Thunder’s Usage over the last 2 weeks (the time period I’m using to get the percentage of total Usage each player has accumulated). Now that 25% needs to get distributed to the rest of the Thunder players. I calculate the revised Usage without Durant for each player first. So if Russell Westbook is currently at 28% Usage I would divide 28/(100-25) – that’s total team usage – Durant’s 25% to get 37%. So I expect to give 37% of the missing Usage to Westbrook. I then multiply 37% (percent of missing usage I’m applying to Westbrook) by 28% (Westbrook’s current Usage) to get 10.4%. That’s the percentage by which his expected fantasy points will be increased. So if Westbrook is expected to get 50 fantasy points and you have this adjustment turned on he would be expected to get 55 points with a 10% increase. The Regression Level is still applied so if you have it set to 2 it would divide that adjustment in half and give him a 5% increase.

Regression Level

This is a very important factor that could easily get overlooked. Some of the adjustments can produce some odd results (especially on players with very few games played or low minutes). A big game here or there could really change their adjustment values significantly. The regression level brings all adjustment values closer to 1 by dividing the difference from one in half. So an example would be a Last 5 Minutes Adjustment for Tony Wroten at 1.5 because he’s played 30 minutes per game over his last 5 vs. 20 minutes per game on average for the season. If the regression level is set to 1 this value will stay at 1.5. Each increase of the regression level will divide that number in half and bring it closer to 1. So a regression level of 2 would make Tony Wroten’s adjustment = 1.25 instead of 1.5. Increase the regression to 3 and now it’s 1.12. This is simply a way to reign in some of the adjustments and bring everything a bit closer to average.

Filters

adjustments

The blue box at the top allows you to filter the data by criteria that you select. Here’s how each filter works:

Average Fantasy Points

If you only want to include players in your lineup that have averaged at least 15 fantasy points per game on the season you can enter the value 15 here and all players who have averaged below 15 fantasy points for the season will have their projection set to 0 and you’ll get a lineup made up of players who have all averaged at least 15 fantasy points on the season.

Average Minutes

If you only want to include players in your lineup that have averaged at least 20 minutes per game on the season you can enter the value 20 here and all players who have averaged below 20 minutes for the season will have their projection set to 0 and you’ll get a lineup made up of players who have all averaged at least 15 minutes per game on the season.

Fantasy Points Standard Deviation

There are certain players who are very consistent with the number of fantasy points they score from game to game. These players will have a low standard deviation. Other players might bounce around from big games of 45 fantasy points to games of 10 or 12 fantasy points on a regular basis. These players will have a higher standard deviation. You can check the standard deviation of all players on the Season Stats tab of the spreadsheet. Players like Dirk Nowitzki, Klay Thompson, and Kyle Lowry all have fairly low standard deviations of around 8 points. Guys like Anthony Davis. Eric Bledsoe, and Jeff Teague all have higher standard deviations of around 13 points. If you’re looking for a consistent lineup you could set your standard deviation filter to 12 and all of the players with a standard deviation higher than that will be excluded.

Starters Only

If you’re looking to build a lineup that only includes starters you can set this to true. If the official starting lineups are out for the day those will be used. If it’s early in the day then expected starting lineups will be used and any player not expected to start will have his projection set to zero and the optimal lineup will be generated with starters only.

Games Played

If you’re wary of players making their season debut or players that have only played in a few games on the season and don’t want anyone who hasn’t played at least 5 games on the season to appear in your lineup then you can set this value to 5 and any player who hasn’t played in at least 5 games will be zeroed out.

Played Last 7 Days

If you don’t want to include players coming back from injury in their first game back or players who have been out of the rotation completely for the past few games then you can set the Played Last 7 Days value to Yes. The value cannot be customized beyond 7 days – you either use that filter or not. If you choose to use that filter any player who has not played a game in the last 7 days will have their projection set to 0.

Comment below or send me an email with any additional questions you might have.

  • RickP23

    This is awesome stuff!!! Very thorough! Very well written, this explains a lot, I especially appreciate the examples of using this in practice.

  • AllenSacco

    Very ice job

  • lorneculp

    what would you say are the best variable to use for a GPP lineup?

  • lorneculp  I haven’t done enough testing yet to say for sure, but my thought is that in a big tourney you need at least 2 guys to outperform their projection by a long shot. If everyone on your team hits their projection you probably still won’t do that great in a big tourney because there will be a few guys that blow up and the teams that do the best in the tourney have those guys.

    So I would recommend leaving the settings on default, then 2-3 guys that look like they have a favorable matchup and a good chance to outperform their projection significantly – bump up their projections on the hunches tab and let the Solver model fill in the rest. So essentially, you’re saying – if these 2-3 guys have a huge game then I have a good shot at placing high in the tourney. If the guys you chose don’t have a big game (or other guys have a considerably better game) then you’re out of luck.

    That’s what I’m trying to test now. I’ll follow-up if I find anything different.

  • Pingback: Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy, The Fake Basketball Daily Fantasy Basketball Projection Tool -- The Fake Basketball()

  • jecarl2

    When I run the solver it says cant find Library-what am i doing wrong?

  • jecarl2

    Got it fixed, this thing is bad ass

  • jecarl2  Awesome man…good to hear you got it fixed. The How-To guide is the best resource for troubleshooting https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/use-daily-fantasy-basketball-customized-projection-tool/. Excel can be a pain though with all of the different versions so let me know if you see any other issues.

  • pokerthroat

    Having the same problem as jecarl2, after i add players not playing, adjust players minutes and projections, i run the solver and get some sort of debugger that says can’t find Library.  also if i do not run the solver, the projected line ups are all jacked up.  $78,000 salary cap on DK?  $144000 on DS?  Lance Stephenson, who is on the “will not play list”  in the optimal line up with a projected 0?  And when i change the salary cap i get the same debugger message.  the only thing i’ve changed is today’s DNP’s and projected mins.  any help please

  • pokerthroat

    reading how to guide now

  • pokerthroat  The lineups will look out of whack until you run the Solver model. Make sure you have Solver installed in your version of Excel. You should be able to tell if you click on Data in the Excel ribbon and you should see Solver on the far right. The compile errors are covered in the How-To guide so hopefully the same solution will work for you. If you still have trouble…let me know what version of Excel you’re running and I may have some additional ideas

  • pokerthroat

    sheetsports pokerthroat  ok, i am not getting the error message anymore.  FD solver is working good, but the DS and DK solver keeps going well over the cap limit.

  • pokerthroat They don’t all run at the same time. You choose the site on the Fantasy Site setting in the Adjustment Selection tab. Then based on what you choose…you go to that Solver tab and hit “Run Model” The other Solver tabs won’t be valid until you change the fantasy site setting and then Run Model on the correct tab. Does that make sense?

  • pokerthroat

    sheetsports pokerthroat  yes, and that is what i was referring to.  if i choose FD on the Adjustment Selection tab, then go to solver, it stays within the cap limit for FD.  But if i chose DK and go to the DK solver, it does not give me a line up within the cap limit. it continues to exceed.  same with DS solver.  ok, so i decided to start over and closed that excel page, went back and downloaded a new one and now the solver is not in the “view” ribbon.  sorry im having so many problems, i’m not ready to give up yet.

  • pokerthroat Solver isn’t under the “View” tab in Excel. It should be under “Data.” Ideally, you don’t even need to touch that though…it’s just a way to tell if you have it installed correctly or not. If you could send me a screenshot or save the file when it errors and send that to me I can see what I can do to figure it out. You’re running Excel 2010 right?

  • pokerthroat

    sheetsports pokerthroat  so how do i get the solver to show up in the spreedsheet again?

  • pokerthroat

    sheetsports pokerthroat

  • pokerthroat Here are the instructions on how to load Solver directly from Microsoft: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/load-the-solver-add-in-HP010021570.aspx. You will likely need to close Excel once you’d loaded Solver and made it active for all changes to fully take place. That’s the problem…the button that runs the model is failing because it can’t find Solver in your instance of Excel

  • lorneculp

    sheetsports jecarl2 Do you have any suggests on good variables to adjust for GPP? This solver seems based on cash games. Also it seems to overly like Faried which paid off for me once. But I can not hardly ever get it to give me a lineup without Faried in it.

  • lorneculp jecarl2  I haven’t fully tested it enough, but my thought is that you need 1-3 guys to score significantly over their projection to do well in a GPP. My thought is to look through the trends and based on your own hunch…pick 2 guys and manually adjust (in the Hunch Adjustments area) those 2 guys up by 20 points each. Then let Solver build the rest of your lineup around those 2 guys. If you’re right and those guys have a big game…then you have a great shot at winning. If you’re wrong…well some other players probably are going to find the guys that have a huge night so you’re not going to win anyways. 

    That’s what I’m trying to test now…it just takes time to actually hit once in a while on the guys you pick.

    If you don’t like Faried…put him on the Players Who Will Not Play list. Then it will just take him out of the equation and will find other players to select.

  • pokerthroat

    sheetsports pokerthroat  that did it, thanks for the patience and quick support.  looks great.

  • Swiftysports

    Why can’t I get in to my stuff now? I paid for it and I didn’t even get a e-mail yet?

  • Swiftysports  What email did you use to sign up? I’ll make sure you have access

  • Swiftysports

    sheetsports Swiftysports  :  crobi31725@aol.com      Thank you   chris

  • Swiftysports You should be getting an email from Tinypass with the details. Let me know if there’s still an issue.

  • Swiftysports

    sheetsports Swiftysports  I am good now. Thank you. I see a total of 301 for FP for today? in FD I see over 330 or more points makes money. . Not sure the 301 FP will get me some cash. I will go with your teams players today. and I will  look back on like the last couple of days to see how many FP  Some thing New to read on. Thank You again.   chris

  • pokerthroat

    not getting any player salaries or projections for the DK solver, and the DS solver has many players with all zeroes, noah, durant, carmelo, etc..

  • Swiftysports

    How an I do a Late games? what I have to do to fix that ? any tips/ do you have a Video to show? easy on some people to understand too.

  • Swiftysports The teams that win a large Fanduel contest with 330+ points all have at least 1-2 guys that score significantly higher than any projection system would predict. Think about Terrence Ross two weeks ago or Jeff Green this past week. Identifying the guys that are going to have a huge, unexpected night is a nearly impossible to do on a consistent basis. So the projections give you something to start with. You can adjust those based on minutes or your own hunches.

  • Swiftysports  On the Minutes and Hunches tab next to the “Players That Will Not Play” list there is a column for ‘Exclude Teams.” Put the Team Abbreviation of the teams that are playing that day, but are not going to be in your contest. So for the late games you’ll need to exclude the teams playing in early games. Make sure the abbreviation is the same as the Team listed on the Adjustment Selection tab.

  • seekay020

    Any possible way in the future you can make the spreadsheet where you can select like two base projections at once and allow the user to weight how much each one is used?

  • seekay020  It’s definitely a possibility. It wouldn’t be a simple change though so I’d need to take some time to make sure I get it setup correctly. I’m not sure how much that would improve the projections though.

  • Swiftysports

    Where is the sheet for today I didn’t get on yet?

  • Swiftysports  It’s posted here like always https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/daily-fantasy-basketball-custom-projection-tool/https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/daily-fantasy-basketball-custom-projection-tool/https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/daily-fantasy-basketball-custom-projection-tool/

  • cddcda

    I love this spreadsheet and have had pretty good success with it.  Is there any chance you will be expanding the solver pages to include any other sites?  I have been playing NBA on FanThrowDown this NBA season and would love to see a solver sheet for them.

  • kpee44

    hey sheets… is there anyway to change the value of the betting totals? if you do the spreadsheets at night before the games….. wouldn’t the vegas lines be out of date? just curious…

  • kpee44  It’s a bit of a catch-22 because I want to get the spreadsheet out early enough for everyone to use it to set their lineups, but no matter when I do the update there’s always the chance some data will be missing or out of date by the time the game occurs. Changing them yourself won’t do anything because the adjustments values won’t change. I have to run it through my back-end process for that to happen. The good thing is, having missing values for betting lines or totals will not negatively impact the projections. It just won’t use that adjustment at all for players where the adjustment is missing. I hope to have some changes in place next year that will allow you to dynamically refresh lines and injury information at the time you’re running your lineup, but won’t be able to do that this season.

  • cddcda  Good to hear the tool has been working well for you. I don’t have any plans for adding new sites this season, but will definitely consider it when I have time to make big changes in the offseason. I’ve typically prioritized based on demand so if I get feedback on the desire to add a particular site then I will add it. If there’s not much demand though then it may not be worth adding into the process.

  • kpee44

    sheetsports ooohhhhh… oka cool deal. Thats understandable. i’ll just add hunches or something like that to the players that have a higher betting total. Thanks for the information buddy.

  • Swiftysports

    I would like to use Love and Griffin in most of my teams How can you add the top 2 in a line up and then click Sovle when that happened both guys don’t stay on there ? any way to keep them on when you do it?

  • Swiftysports  If there are players that you absolutely have to have in your lineups regardless of the value you can add them in to the Hunch Adjustments section on the first tab and add an extra 20 points to their score. The total projected value for your lineup will look weird, but it will guarantee that those guys stay in your lineup and will optimize around them.

  • Swiftysports

    sheetsports Swiftysports   I will try that out. 

    Thank you  Learning how to use it is hard. wish you can make a video on it. . I can learn  this way if you had one.

  • Swiftysports

    sheetsports Swiftysports   Yes that works good now. Thank you so much for the help.

  • cgalligan18

    I’m getting a “Compile Error” every time I try to “Run Model”

    My email is cgalligan18@yahoo.com

  • mrmondaynight

    Great tool, something like this has been on my mind since MLB 2013. I work full time and sometimes don’t have enough time to research prior to lineups lock on FanDuel. I’ve been using this since this past Sunday and after messing with the settings and such today I noticed a couple things:

    1. Why would the solver select 2 players (Evan turner, Gary Neal) who were on my “Players that will not play” list? I am using Variance and Avg PPG numbers (200,20) and this seems to affect my optimal lineup. 

    2. I hit “Run Model” two times without changing anything and it gave me 2 different optimal lineups. 

    3. This tool is a game changer in my opinion, I’m so glad there was someone technically inclined to put out such a project for a totally affordable price. Thanks, again!

  • mrmondaynight  I’m not sure how Solver could have selected Turner or Neal tonight because neither had a salary and both were projected at 0. Once those guys play 1 game for their new team they will switch over to the correct team, but that hasn’t happened yet. I have seen issues where Solver chose a different lineup with minimal changes, but haven’t seen it do that with no changes at all.

    Could you save the file as is and send to me? bryan at spreadsheet-sports dot com. I’d also like to know what version of Excel you’re running. Even though 99% of the functionality works with the older versions of Excel there are some oddities that can affect things.

  • mrmondaynight

    sheetsports mrmondaynight  Thanks for the reply, sent you the file I was using today.

  • mrmondaynight I haven’t gotten an email. Make sure you send to bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com (sorry the way I sent before left room for error)

  • mrmondaynight Were you able to try that email again? I still haven’t gotten anything

  • jeepsguy004

    Bryan,

    Question for you.

    On the NBA fantasy projection sheets can you add more spaces to include for minute adjustments or can the formula just be dragged down to add more players for minute adjustments ourselves?

    Thanks.

  • You can drag the formula down and add more. That will work

  • jeepsguy004

    sheetsports

    Thanks Bryan for the quick response.

  • BryanDevonshire

    Having a problem with the solver.  DK ignores salary cap and selected top eight players, FD solver gave me a lineup worth 193 points and 36k.  I’m new to this, spreadsheet looks great though.  Thanks for your work.

  • BryanDevonshire  Hey Bryan – I think the issue might be that you haven’t changed the Fantasy Site setting on the Adjustment Selection tab to the site that you want to find a lineup for. It’s in the settings in the top left corner. Also, if you’ve finding a lineup on Fanduel you’ll want to use the Solver tab. On DraftKings, DraftKings Solver and so on. You also need to make sure you hit the “Run Model” button for the algorithm to actually run and find your lineup. If you just open to the page without running anything it won’t give you a valid lineup. Email me: bryan at spreadsheet-sports dot com with any additional questions. You might also want to check out the How-To Guide here: https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/use-daily-fantasy-basketball-customized-projection-tool/

  • BryanDevonshire

    @sheetsports Good stuff.  Switching site on main page def fixed FD.  I’ll keep playing with it.  Thanks again!

  • MichaelMiller4

    I’m getting a “Compile Error” every time I try to “Run Model”

    email is

  • cddcda

    I am not sure where to post this, but your 4-22 NBA spreadsheet has the wrong salaries for Fanduel.

  • cddcda  Thanks for letting me know. I left them in from the Monday-Tuesday contest, but it looks like the Tuesday-only games changed. Everything is updated now.

  • Dave Olson

    Question regarding the injuries and updates throughout the day etc. Is there a way to have the injuries updated by running a Macro? Similar to the NFL tool you currently provide?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – this is something I’m working on. It’s a matter of getting the formatting right to allow for on-demand updates. I’m currently using a plugin to refresh injuries each night, but I need to change that to a different format to allow everyone to refresh it on-demand. It will be available soon – I’m hoping later this week.

      • Dave Olson

        Great!! When I open the tool the default settings in the “adjustment selection” differ than the example you have above. Which is the default setting?

        • spreadsheetsports

          The default is what gets loaded each night when I upload the tool. With only 2-3 games played so far in the season it doesn’t quite make sense to apply some of the adjustments so I’ve made some changes to the settings that you see above to handle that.

  • HatTricks34

    I am getting an error message saying “compile Error” “Cant find project or library”

    • HatTricks34

      while trying to “Run Model”

    • spreadsheetsports

      The compile error happens when you don’t have the free plugin Solver installed. It’s covered in the User Guide here: https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/support/nfl-projection-tool-user-guide/

      You can also just follow the instructions from Microsoft here: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/load-the-solver-add-in-HP010021570.aspx

      If you’re running Excel for Mac you shouldn’t have to worry about installing, but you will need to complete this extra step:

      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

      You may also want to shut down Excel completely and restart for the Solver installation to take effect. Let me know if you still run into issues.

  • BSchr

    question. I am looking at the Draftkings solver but it looks like its using the Fanduel projections. how can I adjust?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Change the Fantasy Site setting on the Adjustment Selection tab in the top left

      • Fantasy Gumshoe

        I attempted to change the setting on Adjustment selection (was the yellow Fantasy Site 4F Cell). Every time I enter DraftKings or Draft Kings and then use the solver/ Run Model it doesn’t change to DK projections. What am I doing wrong?

        • Fantasy Gumshoe

          AMMMMMAAAAAAAZING tool, by the way. I mean – Whoa.

        • spreadsheetsports

          So you have the DraftKings tool right? The Fantasy Site setting is still there on the sheet, but it really isn’t functional unless you have the full (All Daily Sites) sheet. The Salary column on the far left will look odd because everything is loaded as FanDuel by default. What does change when you change the fantasy site – is the Site Specific Salary column in AN. That’s your DraftKings salary and the projections will all be for DraftKings.

          • Fantasy Gumshoe

            Gotcha. I should have just bought the 2 for one I get my feet wet more. So the projected points in the DK solver tab that list “projected FanDuel points,” those are in fact FanDuel points then right? Does that mean then that the solver for optimal lineup is still injesting from D2 in that solver tab?

          • spreadsheetsports

            No – I’ll fix the heading. Everything should be DraftKings on that tab. The final projection in the Adjustment Selection tab is the Customized Projection column

  • Luis

    Hi, great tool! It’s extremely helpful. Quick question: is there a way to build a team around a player(s)? Thanks!

    • spreadsheetsports

      The best way to do that at the moment is to add a large number of points (say 30) in the Hunch Adjustments section to the players you want to build your team around. Your final projection will obviously look inflated, but that will force the Solver tool to see those guys as such high value that it will have to choose them for the optimal lineup. I’m working on a way to build this in so that it’s easier and doesn’t inflate the final projections.

  • Keith

    Is it possible to take your base projections and avg them with other sets of projections and still use the adjustments? Also I would assume if it’s possible it wouldnt affect the optimization tool.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Sure – if you’re comfortable with Excel you can edit the sheet and change calculations. One way to do this would be to calculate the final projection numbers on a separate sheet and then vlookup those projections into the Projected Fanduel Points column on the left side of the FanDuel (or DraftKings) Optimal Lineup tabs. Then when you run the Solver model it will use your new projections.

      • Keith

        Great! Sorry and just to confirm, when I pull in my own projections with the vlookup I should still be able to use your adjustment models to manipulate the new projections?

        • spreadsheetsports

          No – when you use your own projections you’re overwriting the Projections part of the worksheet and using your own for the Solver. If you still want to use the adjustments the value you should change should be the “Base Projection” column in the Adjustment Selection tab. Then you can still use all of the adjustments and other functionality

          • Keith

            Perfect. Exactly what I wanted to know. Thanks

  • Matt

    Does this tool not work on a mac? Because it worked for me at work on my Windows comp but won’t work on my mac. I have solver installed.

    • Matt

      I went to Tools > Macros > Visual Basic Editor and then Tools > References. Checked off Solver, Unchecked the other option. But it keeps giving me three PGs and adds up to over $60,000. Anything I can do?

      • spreadsheetsports

        It works on Mac. So you’ve already done these steps right?

        1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
        2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
        3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

        Did you hit the Run Model button again after going through these steps? If so what happened? Please send me an email and include screenshots if you can and I’ll help you get it up and running.

        • Matt

          Okay I sent you a screenshot

          • spreadsheetsports

            I didn’t get it. Email is bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

          • Matt

            You may need to check your spam folder. For some reason emails have been going to spam lately. But it sent it should be in there.

          • spreadsheetsports

            Sorry…still not seeing it. What’s your email address?

          • Matt
          • Matt

            Basically what’s happening is whenever I hit run model (after following the steps you showed me) it gives me back wrong information.

            For example, when I put in to exclude New Orleans players (NOP) on the Adjustment tab, it returns three PGs and a salary over $60,000. I took a screen shot. Not sure what’s happening.

          • spreadsheetsports

            It looks like everything is setup fine. Did you change any of the cells at the top under Number of Players Selected and Max Players? My thought is that something changed on your sheet and it’s thrown off Solver. I would download a fresh sheet, go through the steps to link Solver again and then try hitting Run Model

          • Matt

            Nope I didn’t change anything 🙁

          • spreadsheetsports

            What happened when you downloaded a fresh sheet? Did you get the exact same result?

  • steven azizi

    I keep getting a message that state compile error sub or function not defined. i went through all the steps required for macs

  • Jeff Ross

    i’m running on a Mac and looked at comments below … I went into Tools>Macros>VBA Editor and then tools>references. I see the “Missing Solver.XLAM” box to uncheck, but there is not a “Solver” box to check. What am I missing?

    • steven azizi

      I’m having the same problem. whenever I press run model, it states that function was not defined even i did ools>Macros>VBA Editor and then tools>references

      • spreadsheetsports

        You may not have Solver enabled. Try this: To enable Solver, click ‘Tools’ then ‘Addins’. Within the Addin box, check ‘Solver.xlam’ then hit ‘OK’. You can also read through all of the information on Solver for Mac here: http://www.solver.com/welcome-mac-users-solver-now-included-excel-2011. After you’ve enabled make sure you go through the extra steps on Mac here:

        1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
        2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
        3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

        • steven azizi

          i think this did the job. ill keep u posted. As I’ve been playing with the spreadsheet to get a hang of everything, sometimes the salary goes over 60k sometimes it does

    • spreadsheetsports

      You may not have Solver enabled. Try this: To enable Solver, click ‘Tools’ then ‘Addins’. Within the Addin box, check ‘Solver.xlam’ then hit ‘OK’. You can also read through all of the information on Solver for Mac here: http://www.solver.com/welcome-mac-users-solver-now-included-excel-2011. After you’ve enabled make sure you go through the extra steps on Mac here:
      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

  • Help

    I hit run model on my excel 2013 and popped up my visual basic

  • brad jugler

    When I hit run model it says cant find project or library. What should I do?

  • brad jugler

    WHen i hit run model it says cant find project or library. What should I do

  • Joe Whalen

    Is there a way to change the max salary? I’m playing a league with a max salary of 55000, not 60000 and want to adjust accordingly

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – it’s somewhat hidden, but under the Total Salary value in the Solver tabs (cell Q10) there is a value in white text. That’s the maximum salary used for the contest. Change that to $55,000 and your optimal lineup will reflect that.

  • JASON

    I CANT SEEM TO GET THE EXCLUDE TEAMS FUNCTION TO WORK? AFTER I PUT THEM IN, THE SOLVER DOESNT WORK. ANY SUGGESTIONS? I DONT SEE A FORMULA IN THE EXCLUDE TEAMS BOXES?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Use the team abbreviations as they appear on the adjustment selection tab

  • unofficial916

    are these spreadsheets being uploaded daily?
    just making sure this is still active.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – the NBA spreadsheet gets uploaded each day with new data

      • unofficial916

        sweet. thanks for the fast reply. For that Im buyin in!

  • canine

    Hey my friend… great spreadsheet, but I can’t use it yet… I followed your instructions and installed the solver plugin, then enabled it (it is listed as active). I also enabled macros as you stated. I am working on a PC…. After all this, I still get the “compile error: can’t find project or library”

    Thoughts on what I should do?

    • spreadsheetsports

      If you just installed Solver now you may want to shut down Excel and reopen for it to take effect.

      • canine

        Yes, I did this. I even restarted my computer…

        • spreadsheetsports

          Can you email me to work through this? bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com.

          I’d like to know what version of Excel you’re running (2007, 2010, 2013) and whether or not you see Solver listed as an option when you click on the Data tab in the top Excel ribbon. If you do have it – and you click it and then hit “Solve” does it run and give you an optimal lineup?

          • canine

            Yes… It works when I manually use the solver tab under data… I’ll do this from now on… THANKS!

          • spreadsheetsports

            There’s actually another step that the macro performs before it solves. You should sort columns A-E on the Solver tab by Projected FanDuel Points (column D) descending just before you’re ready to find an optimal lineup. That ensures all your adjustments will be taken into account. I’m not sure why the macro wouldn’t be working for you. Are you using Excel 2007? Do you have Macros enabled?

          • Tyler Nishida

            Hi, just purchased your product and I’m having the same problem as described in canine’s first post.

            i’m using excel 2011 for mac and i do not see solver as an option when i click on the data tab

          • spreadsheetsports

            That’s a false alarm error message that happens on Mac due to the difference between Solver on Windows and Mac. Everything has run as expected – just hit End and ignore that message.

  • artyusmc

    Hello,

    I just purchased this program. The FanDuel projections work perfectly. However, the DraftKings salary will not stay below 50,000. It rises up to 72,000. Any ideas on how to fix this?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Change the fantasy site setting to DraftKings on the Adjustment Selection tab. Then make sure to hit the Run Model again on the DraftKings Solver tab.

      • artyusmc

        Thank you. I was just missing the little details. Appreciate it!

  • Ruben Rodriguez

    how do u run solver without losing my pics

    • spreadsheetsports

      It’s covered in the User Guide here: https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/support/nfl-projection-tool-user-guide/

      You can also just follow the instructions from Microsoft here: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/load-the-solver-add-in-HP010021570.aspx

      If you’re running Excel for Mac you shouldn’t have to worry about installing, but you will need to complete this extra step:

      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

      You may also want to shut down Excel completely and restart for the Solver installation to take effect. Let me know if you still run into issues.

  • Ruben Rodriguez

    tried and still replaces my nfo not sure what im doing wrong using windows office 2013

    • spreadsheetsports

      I’m not sure what you mean by “replaces your info.” Please send me a screenshot and describe what’s happening further: bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • Ruben Rodriguez

    i put my picks in the optimizer filling about 6 slots i hit the solver button and when its done i hit ok and it puts the lineup that was there before i changed it

    • spreadsheetsports

      So you’re selecting 6 players for your lineup and wanting the tool to fill out the rest? You shouldn’t be entering them into the lineup box. The best way to do that now would be to put those 6 players in the Hunch Adjustments section of the Hunches and Adjustments tab and add 30 points to each of their projections (just to ensure Solver will select them for the lineup). Then hit the Run Model button again without editing any cells on that tab.

  • Wreck003

    Hello! I just bought your spreadsheet today, and I was wondering if the betting stats are imported into the spreadsheet as soon as the download is available, or do we have to wait until the lines come out, and then update the data on the spreadsheet. If so, how do we update the data? Thank you for your time!

    • spreadsheetsports

      Currently there’s no way to update after the sheet gets loaded for the day. That’s something I’m working on though so you’ll have the ability to refresh throughout the day. There are a few games that don’t get loaded until later in the day and until I get the new version implemented (should be very soon) there’s nothing that can be done with them for that day.

  • Tyler Nishida

    can you develop a way to inform us that you have updated the spreadsheet? i keep downloading the same copy lol

    • David Gerber

      I agree with this. Would be nice to at least have a (date) next to the link to know what the date is

  • Tyler Nishida

    hey under the adjustment selection tab, on the verry bottom of the “adjustments” column (cell B8) is something called “Last 5 Minutes”. what is that? its not referenced on the user guide

    • spreadsheetsports

      It’s a minutes based adjustment that can be used if you’re using Season Averages for your base projection but still want to capture the changes in playing time over the last 5 games (compared to average minutes for the entire season). So it’s the difference between average minutes per game in the last 5 games and average minutes per game across the entire season multiplied by the average fantasy points per minute scored by each player.

      • Tyler Nishida

        cool thanks!

  • Joe Whalen

    When will the Betting Lines and Betting Line Adjustments be set for today?

    • Joe Whalen

      With two of the four games anticipated to be lopsided, Betting Line adjustments are crucial tonight. Please update!

      • spreadsheetsports

        No Betting Lines tonight unfortunately. Sunday night into Monday is always difficult because the sites are so focused on football so NBA doesn’t get updated until much later than normal. I’m focusing on getting the new version ready to release that allows for Betting Lines/Totals to be refreshed on-demand so that’s the trade-off I had to make.

  • Mike Joplin

    Running the Solver is presenting me with a Compile error – ‘can’t find project or library’. It then opens up VBA. Could I be missing something to ensure the Solver runs properly?

    • spreadsheetsports

      The compile error happens when you don’t have the free plugin Solver installed. It’s covered in the User Guide here: https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/support/nfl-projection-tool-user-guide/

      You can also just follow the instructions from Microsoft here: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/load-the-solver-add-in-HP010021570.aspx

      If you’re running Excel for Mac you shouldn’t have to worry about installing, but you will need to complete this extra step:

      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

      You may also want to shut down Excel completely and restart for the Solver installation to take effect. Let me know if you still run into issues.

      • Mike Joplin

        Seems to be running the model as it should. Definitely going to be a learning curve involved with tweaking adjustments and having the module run correctly with any changes I make. One other thing. When clicking ‘Refresh’ under the data tab it says – ‘Initialization of the data source failed.’

        • spreadsheetsports

          Yes – that’s not something that can be refreshed with the current configuration

  • Jaymes Groat

    how do I update the projections for the new day? my spreadsheet projections are stuck on yesterday.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – it’s posted to the site. You’ll need to login and download the new file. The email you got from Tinypass when you first logged in should contain the URL to go back to each day for the updated sheet.

  • Jaymes Groat

    Wondering if there was an update for today’s games and projections?

  • Dennis

    Hi I bought both your nba and nfl models. I ran them on a PC with no issues but when I run it on my mac, the solver seems to go much quicker, almost too quick (PC version sets up the problem then takes time to run multiple branches before displaying a result. Mac sets up the problem then quickly shows a result). Is this normal? (I don’t have a PC with me to verify the Mac results). Thanks!

    • spreadsheetsports

      You’re not getting any kind of error message when you run it? There’s an extra set of steps on a Mac that you should take to make sure Solver is connected:
      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.
      In my experience it takes slightly longer on a Mac so I wouldn’t expect it to complete instantly.

      • Dennis

        No error, and had already taken the steps you mentioned. Have tried it on 2 macs with diff versions of excel and both progress in the same way: “setting up the problem” for 10-15 seconds, then immediately displaying result.

        Is there any sort of “step through” function on VB to see where it’s rushing through?

        Like I said, this happens on 2 diff macs running 2 diff versions of excel, so imagine I’m missing a step somewhere (but got it to work fine of the PC, and took the additional action you suggested for Macs, so not sure where I’m going wrong.)

        Thanks

        • spreadsheetsports

          Does it appear to be displaying a valid optimal lineup? For example, if you give someone (who isn’t in the default Optimal Lineup) an extra 100 points in the Hunch Adjustments settings and then hit the Run Model button does it include that player in the Optimal LIneup? If so then it’s probably working fine if you’re not getting any error message.

          • Dennis

            Hey, sorry for delayed reply. I was travelling. I tried your suggestion and entered 100 for a player. Got an error message at the end: “Runtime error 1004: Method ‘Calculation’ of object ‘_Application’ failed”.

            Any ideas? Thanks for all you help

          • spreadsheetsports

            That’s a false alarm error message that only happens on Mac. You can ignore it – everything has already run as expected.

  • Sneakyb97

    Do you calculate the “Base Projection” by just the averages we select, or is there something else that goes into it? And in what situations would we want to select a shorter time frame for the base projection?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Base projection is just the average over the time period that you select – nothing else. I would generally recommend a longer time period for your base, but some players get a new opportunity or a hot streak so some DFS players like to use a shorter time frame to calculate base projections. From the research I’ve done you’re much better off with a longer range, but there are always exceptions.

      • Sneakyb97

        I appreciate the reply. Thank you!

  • reddrum

    In the NBA spreadsheet, are there only solver sheets for DK and FD even if you bought the full package?

    I’m on a mac. I got through all of the solver craziness, whew! Do you have to do this every time you open a new day’s spreadsheet?

    Thanks in advance!

    ps: In my first use of it last night the picks did very well!

    • spreadsheetsports

      Unfortunately, yes – you have to connect Solver each time you open a new sheet on a Mac. Solvers for the other sites are still in the works so it’s only FD and DK for now but others will be available soon.

      • reddrum

        Are the new solvers for other sites soon like within a week or soon like sometime? The reason I ask is I like some other sites but I’d like to have one solution for all of the sites I use. If it’s going to be a longer time I’ll conjure something else up for the other sites, but if the new solvers are real soon then it isn’t worth the time! Thank you!

        • spreadsheetsports

          I would say within 2-3 weeks. I have to see all the constraints used by the other sites.

  • Tyler Nishida

    what time do you usually update your spreadsheet? so i don’t have to check so frequently 🙂

    • spreadsheetsports

      Typically by 12:30am, but definitely by 11am the day of games.

  • Chris Hardee

    Is there a Projection Tool for today?

  • Southpaw1975

    Chris Hardee

    I was wondering the same thing, I keep getting the spreadsheet for yesterdays games…….I emailed Bryan but he has not responded

    • spreadsheetsports

      There was an issue with the update process this morning, but everything should be available to download now. Sorry for the delay!

  • Rob DiPietro

    hey whats going on? love the product, just getting use to it while not being very excel savvy. i tried adjusting the weight for opponent and bet total to adjust for gpp style values and when i go to the solver it doesnt run a full team. its listing only a couple of guys and the rest of the optimal lineup area is filled with some #. any help is greatly appreciated. thanks

    • spreadsheetsports

      Rob – please send me an email with your sheet saved as is so I can take a look. I can’t say for sure what went wrong unless I see the adjustments you made. Email is bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

      • Rob DiPietro

        Bryan, i saw what i was doing wrong. Thanks for the quick response. Great sheet last night. I rode 3 hunches and your sheet to place in top 10 of a 20,000 entry game.

  • Rob DiPietro

    Bryan, any reason why the Golden State Warriors projections are all messed up? and the Mavericks? is it because of the early start?

  • artyusmc

    Bryan,
    I sent you an email with a question I had retaining to the NBA speadsheet

  • Hnic29

    Is there a way to lock players in? and then have the solver figure the rest?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Currently the best way is to add a high number of points in the Hunch section to the players you want to lock. Your overall projection will look inflated but it will achieve what you’re wanting to do. This is being modified to make it easier soon.

      • Hnic29

        Can you give an example… Thanks for the quick response

      • Hnic29

        you have a time frame when you will have that added? Great work!!!

        • spreadsheetsports

          The new version should be released by the end of the year.

  • Sneakyb97

    Hey Bryan…Can you briefly discuss the calculation behind the scoring variance, and does it imply a certain floor or ceiling for a player? Also, is there a way the spreadsheet can show how often a player reaches 3,4,5 or 6% of their value?

  • NateN

    Is there a quick way to import custom projections from another excel file?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Not as of yet. I’m working on that in the new version and it should be very simple.

      • fl

        hello, just wondering if you’re still working on this?

        • spreadsheetsports

          Custom Projections are available in the tool now

  • Jasen Allen

    I am having serious issues with the solver going over the draftkings salary limit. I have read every comment and am making sure I select draftkings in the adjustment selector. I am also using the draftkings solver tab. what the hell is wrong. spent all day trying to figure this out and I am very dissapointed with the money I have spent.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Are you getting an error message or is the Solver saying it “Found a Solution” and that solution ends up being over the salary limit? If it’s finding a solution then you may have changed a cell or formula on the spreadsheet. I would recommend downloading a clean file and trying again. If it’s giving you an error message I would recommend going through the steps that I sent you in my email. If that still doesn’t work let me know what version of Excel you’re using and exactly what happens when you click the “Run Model” button after changing the Fantasy Site setting to DraftKings. Sorry for the trouble.

      • Jasen Allen

        I have downloaded multiple clean files all with the same result. it just gave me an optimal lineup with 5PG 1SF and 2C. with a 57500salary I am only adjusting a few things on the adjustment selection tab. (location, avg over 10 games and opponent) I then reselect the DK tab. then I go to the DK solver tab and tell it to run. this is what I get when I do. when I first hit the button it gives an “optimal” lineup pretty quick. the computer continues to run though then gives me a box with this message”
        “solver found an integer within tolerance. All constraints are satisfied”
        “it is possible that better solutions exist. to make sure solver finds the very best solution, set the integer tolerance in the options dialog to 0%” then it gives me 2 bubbles to select “keep solver solution” or “restore original values” which neither change the bad outcome. please help!!!

        • spreadsheetsports

          What version of Excel are you using?

          • Jasen Allen

            2013

          • spreadsheetsports

            You should just click the “Keep Solver Solution” at the end and it will give you the optimal lineup within all of the constraints. That’s how it works for everyone else and if you’re on Excel 2013 you shouldn’t be running into any of the odd issues with Excel in the later versions. Try that again and see if that works. If it doesn’t can you send me the spreadsheet as it is after you’ve ran it and maybe a screenshot of the Solver tab that’s giving you a bad lineup?

  • Southpaw1975

    Bryan
    In the adjustment selection tab what does the “Last 5 Minutes” adjustment do?

  • Southpaw1975

    I didnt see anything in the nba projection tool guide about, I was just curious

  • Southpaw1975

    Bryan
    In the adjustment selection tab what does the “Last 5 Minutes” adjustment do?

    • spreadsheetsports

      It adds or subtracts the difference between the minutes per game played over the last 5 games from the average minutes for the season and then multiplies that by the average fantasy points per minute. So if a player averages 20 minutes per game for the season, but over the last 5 games has been averaging 30 minutes per game and he scores 1 fantasy point per minute played then he would get 10 points added to his projection.

  • Southpaw1975

    thanks

  • Jeff

    I don’t get it…every time I click “Run Model” there is no change in players and a “compile error” comes up it says cant find project or library

    • spreadsheetsports

      The compile error happens when you don’t have the free plugin Solver installed. It’s covered in the User Guide here: https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/support/nfl-projection-tool-user-guide/

      You can also just follow the instructions from Microsoft here: https://support.office.com/en-za/article/Load-the-Solver-Add-in-0e6760e3-dab5-4fd4-bebb-15ee311a4316

      If you’re running Excel for Mac you shouldn’t have to worry about installing, but you will need to complete this extra step:

      1. Click on Tools > Hover over Macros and choose VBA Editor
      2. Then click on Tools again and choose References
      3. When the reference box opens up you want to make sure the box next to “Missing Solver.XLAM” is unchecked and “Solver” is checked.

      You may also want to shut down Excel completely and restart for the Solver installation to take effect. Let me know if you still run into issues

      • Jeff

        its not working I have the newest excel version, everytime I click on run model it opens up a new program of Microsoft visual basic for application

        • spreadsheetsports

          Try shutting it down and re-opening the spreadsheet. The instructions I posted above are what you need to follow. If that still doesn’t work please email me a screenshot of what you’re seeing (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com)

      • Jeff

        Could someone please help…..THis thing does not work for me, maybe meant for smart people only because its definitely not as easy as it seems. I have read the guides that come with the product

        • spreadsheetsports

          Jeff – it’s difficult for me to help you without knowing what the issue is. I sent you the instructions for getting past the “Run Model” issue. Are there further problems? The tool takes a little bit to get used to, but once you get past the initial setup it’s pretty easy to use. Just send me an email with as much information as you can about the problem that you’re running into.

  • Josh

    How do I gain access to this document????

  • Gary Rutherford

    Hey Bryan I’ve got the runtime error 1004 after running the optimal lineup. I’ve gone through the troubleshooting tips to make sure the Solver is checked (I don’t have the ‘MissingSolverXlam’ to check tho…). I’m not tweaking anything at this point, just updating and running Solver. One more thing, I do get a Security Warning that says the data connections are disabled. I enable them, fyi.

    • spreadsheetsports

      This is after running the optimal lineup? Did it give you a pop-up saying it found a solution and then gave you a valid lineup? Also, are you using a Mac? If so, that’s likely a false alarm error message. If not, can you send me a screenshot of what you’re seeing and what button you’re pressing to get to that point? And yes- you should enable Data Connections. Excel disables them by default.

      • Gary Rutherford

        Using a Mac, so it’s nothing. Appreciate your time and I look forward to using your product this season.
        Gary

        Sent via the Samsung GALAXY S® 5, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphone

        ——– Original message ——–

  • Southpaw1975

    Is there a nba spreadsheet for today 1-6-15

    • spreadsheetsports

      The sheet that’s uploaded now (week of 2015-01-05) should be the file you need for the rest of the week. When you hit the Refresh Data button on the Today’s Games Refresh tab it will pull in the correct games for the day, update the season stats, and refresh all of the injury and Vegas data. Every Monday morning there will be a new file uploaded with updated Depth Chart, Opponent Adjustment, etc.

  • Southpaw1975

    right on……thank you

  • Sneakyb97

    Bryan, I really like the new spreadsheet, especially the Depth Chart adjustments and the Floor/Ceiling options. For the Floor and Ceiling adjustment, for cash games what do you suggest to use for the weighting. Something like 20% Floor / 80% Average? Conversely, thoughts on the correct Ceiling weighting for GPP games?

    • spreadsheetsports

      I’m working on a back-testing tool that’s finished, but I am still finalizing the documentation. It will be posted to the site within the next day or two and you can see how the different settings would have performed on historical days or across the entire season. I don’t have an exact answer for you because you can’t really test a GPP lineup vs. a cash lineup. It’s just a matter of how accurate the projections were.

      • David Gerber

        I am also interested in your historical tool. Any info on when this will be available and maybe some advice on what the optimal settings are based on historical performance

        • spreadsheetsports

          It will be posted on the site this weekend. Still putting the finishing touches on the documentation

          • Cody Lunsford

            That historical tool is simply amazing! Great job as always you guys…….damn fine work!

      • Mark Herdiech

        when will this tool be ready?

  • BSchr

    hi Bryan. is there an update for 1/7? it still has the 1/6 sheet under the FD & DK link

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – the same sheet can now be used for the entire week. Just got the refresh data button. See the User Guide in the Support section of the site

  • Mark Peraino

    I just purchased the package (all daily site) and I downloaded the product. For some reason it is only showing 2 games for tonight (1-9-15 – atl/det & phx/san) and only showing the payer projections for those 2 games. When I go to the “Todays Games Refresh” tab and click on the “Refresh Data” box nothing happens. I just get an outlined box around the big rectangular black box and nothing else happens. I would really like to use this for tonight’s games but cannot figure out what is going on. PLEASE HELP

    • spreadsheetsports

      You need to run the refresh to get all players configured for tonight’s games. Are you running Microsoft Excel (either version 2007, 2010, or 2013 for Windows or 2011 for Mac)? If so, make sure you have Macros enabled. You may see a small notification near the top letting you know that Macros are present in the sheet and you need to enable them. If that still doesn’t work – send me a screenshot of what you’re seeing when you try to run the Refresh and let me know what version of Excel you’re on. (email is bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com)

  • Rob- I am not having any luck when trying to optimize for best lineup. I have unchecked the Solver but do not see the other Solver to check. I shut down Excel, opened it up from within my Desktop and then tried the other trouble solving methods. I have no problems refreshing, I just cannot get it to optimize a lineup. Please HELP!

    • spreadsheetsports

      Sent you an email just a bit ago. If refresh is working fine then your problem is with the Solver plugin. Either you don’t have it installed/enabled or Excel is not recognizing it through the Macro. Send me a screenshot or the error message you’re seeing and let me know what version of Excel you’re using. Sorry for the trouble.

  • Not sure why I addressed that last post to you Rob….that was meant to be sent to spreadsheetsports

  • Warren

    Will this work on a tablet?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Unfortunately, no. It requires the full version of Microsoft Excel on a desktop/laptop

  • Patrick

    Im having the same problem as mike dickerson. I click optimal lineup and it says compile error cannot find library. I am running excel 2007 with windows and have installed the solver add on

  • mark dallaces

    Hey guys, I run the algorithm but under the column selected for lineup, I am getting some decimal points, not 1s or 0s. So I have 8 1s and then .75 and .25. So I actually have ten players selected. Can anyone help me

    • spreadsheetsports

      It’s a shortcoming of Excel 2007 because it won’t allow Solver to set the rule of changing variables to binary (1 or 0 only). There is a setting in the sheet to correct for that because most of the time it will select .99 of a player and .01 of another player. The cut-off is at .9 though so if you’re getting .75 and .25 it won’t recognize it. My guess is that you will rarely see a value that low so it shouldn’t be a frequent problem (and you can probably get rid of it by removing a player or changing the projection settings slightly), but the only full solution as of now is to upgrade your version of Excel to a newer version.

      • mark dallaces

        That’s odd because I actually do have excel 2013 so I am not sure why that would be then.

        • spreadsheetsports

          Hmm…I didn’t realize that. I knew of the issue with Excel 2007. Can you send me your sheet with those values stored there? I’d like to see how that would have happened

          • mark dallaces

            So i got it to work now, however, the solution does not stay within my constraints. I am getting a number above my salary cap. What can I do?

          • spreadsheetsports

            The model is set to recognize the salary cap. Are you pressing the Find Optimal Lineup button and the tool is running for a period of time and then popping up a message asking you to “Keep Solver Solution”? If that’s the case it should be working. If not – please send me your sheet so I can take a look.

      • mark dallaces

        So i got it to work now, however, the solution does not stay within my constraints. I am getting a number above my salary cap. What can I do?

  • NateN

    Hey, Love the spreadsheet but am seeing some wierd things recently. It seems like the optimizer isnt really finding the highest points possible, so I looked more into it today. If I set the custom projections weighted section to “Last 5 Games Average 1” and set every other section to zero, and run the optimizer, it gives me a lineup of Mo WIlliams, Eric Bledsoe, Jeremy Evans, Robert Covington, Demarcus Cousins, Trey Burke, Mareese Speights, Rudy Goebert for a total of 301.90. If I take the same exact values, I can get 306.92 out of my own optimizer. It gives me a lineup of Trey Burke,Eric Bledsoe,Draymond Green,Rudy Gobert,Mo Williams,Marreese Speights,Hassan Whiteside. Am I missing something?

    • NateN

      This is on DK also by the way

      • spreadsheetsports

        There are some limitations inside the Excel solver where it finds a lineup very close to the global maximum, but it may not be the true max. It’s a linear model so it doesn’t have the power to generate every single lineup combination and select the true best. Most of the time it will find the best, but there are certain situations with how players are ranked that it won’t fully get there. It’s something we’re working on to improve. What are you using for your optimizer?

        • NateN

          Just an Open Solver Model, I can send you it if you want to take a look.

  • Ed

    Hey all of my final projections went to 0.00 and I can’t figure out what happen? now when I run the final line-up it gives me the players but not the Fantasy points that it should show, it like its missing a decimal or something.

    • spreadsheetsports

      The best way to fix it would be to download a fresh sheet and put you settings back in and re-run your lineup. You can also send me the sheet and I’ll take a look late tonight.

      • Ed

        Okay thanks I will try that.

  • Southpaw1975

    Bryan
    Whats the deal the the nba projections tool for fanduel today……..the projected fantasy points for some of the players is obviously not correct…….over 100 fantasy points for some players and john wall for example is projected to have a 200.12 point night………this is without making any adjustments……..i open the spreadsheet and this is the way it was

  • Southpaw1975

    Anyone else having issues with the nba projection tool for fanduel with todays games??????

    • spreadsheetsports

      There’s any error in the datasource I use for vegas lines. It looks like it should have been entered as 193.5 for the BRK-WAS game, but 1903.5 was entered. I will add a safeguard for this now that I see what kind of an issue it can but, but the solution for today is the following:

      1. Go to the tab labeled Schedule
      2. In cells I1180 and I1181 change the value 1903.5 to 193.5

      This should get everything in order. If you try to run the refresh again the error will return (because that’s the way the data is stored on the web). You’ll need to correct it again.
      You may also get an error on the Schedule tab. If that happens right click in cell A1 of that tab and choose Refresh before running the full refresh again.

  • Southpaw1975

    Bryan
    Thank you

  • Southpaw1975

    Bryan
    Something is wrong when you press refresh data or refresh injuries & vegas only
    #REF! is what is showing for some of the games for today

    • spreadsheetsports

      The NYC postponements tonight caused a bug in the Schedule data. I uploaded a new sheet that removes the errors so you can download a fresh copy. The sheet will still work fine as is, but the new copy will remove the #REF! errors.

  • Southpaw1975

    ok i will try that….thanks

  • bryanbax

    I’m getting an error sub or function not defined. What am I missing?

  • Sneakyb97

    Hey Bryan. Really enjoying the Tracking Dashboard and the spreadsheet of course. I’ve been looking at using the League Rest adjustment, but it seems that the 1.025 and 0.975 adjustments are not being used for the right players. Today for example, a lot of players with the 1 day rest have a different adjustment. Any thoughts?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Good catch – there appears to be a bug in the League Rest formula. I just uploaded a new sheet with a fix so you can grab a fresh copy. Thanks for the heads up.

      • Sneakyb97

        Glad to help. Thank you for the quick fix.

  • fightinirish980

    hi- i purchased the nab sheet for DK and I can’t even get it to work as it continues to freeze and shut down my excel over and over. Any suggestions? I have mac 2011 excel. I appreciate any help you can suggest!

    • spreadsheetsports

      Hmm – I haven’t really seen that before. Make sure you have Macros enabled in Excel (I’m not sure of the exact path on Mac). You may also want to save the file upon download to a location on your computer (desktop, etc), then open Excel on it’s own and do a File > Open from inside Excel to open the file. Let me know if that helps – you can email me directly at bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • Sneakyb97

    Bryan, how do we take a player off the injury list so that their projections will show up? For example, I’ve deleted Kenneth Faried from the Player Adjustment and Depth Chart Adjustment and still don’t see a Custom Projection.

    • spreadsheetsports

      The best way to “force” a projection is to change the Filter Result column on the Projections page to 1. Usually you can just remove the player from the Injury List on the Player Adjustments tab, but there’s a secondary check to see if the player in listed as Inactive in the starting lineup section.

      • Sneakyb97

        Great, thanks Bryan…. Another question for you. Is there any way besides the additional minutes added via the Depth Chart adjustment… that we can take into account the increase in Usage rate % the replacement player will have?

        • spreadsheetsports

          I’m looking into ways to incorporate that. For now, you just need to make a manual adjustment to the projection. What I’ve found is that players on average score at just about the same rate per minute when they start vs. when they come off the bench. It’s just slightly lower for starters most likely due to the fact that they’re likely playing against better defenders. So for direct backups to injured players – usage rate shouldn’t change all that much when they move into the starting lineup. Assuming they played a similar role in the 2nd unit they’re likely doing the same things on the floor just with different guys and more minutes when they start. The one area where a change in Usage Rate should matter is for other starters when a high Usage Rate player is out (i.e. Westbrook when Durant is out and Kyrie when LeBron is out). It’s difficult from a data standpoint to pinpoint all those games based on who played and who sat out, but it’s something I’m trying to incorporate.

          • Sneakyb97

            Bryan, thanks again for the great insight. The difference in Usage Rate for the other starters when a high usage player is out would be a major addition to the spreadsheet. I imagine that would be difficult to pinpoint though. Keep up the good work!

  • Joe Whalen

    hey guys, had your old spreadsheet for a while, just resubscribed for the new one getting an error when i click find optimal lineup:

    Compile Error

    Cant find project or library

    Any pointers? Please email me at joewhalen66 at gmail dot com thank you!

  • Joe Whalen

    just kidding, figured out my first issue. now my issue is this:

    only two of the 5 games for tonight’s players are listed on the spreadsheet? where are the other games?

  • Tom S

    Recently it’s just not working well at all. I know how to fix solver issues and all that but everytime I open it excel will pretty much stop responding, and I just get the rainbox swirl load sign (2014 excel on mac). What is going on?

    • spreadsheetsports

      I would recommend saving the file to a location on your computer upon download rather than opening it directly. Then open Excel on it’s own and do a File > Open from inside Excel on the projection spreadsheet to get it working in Excel. Let me know if that solves it.

  • tlcrocket

    Hey there!

    Which tab will I find your usage? I don’t see it on season stats.

    I like the standard deviation filter, but can’t think of a practical way to use it. what we really want is to exclude non-elite players with a higher standard deviation. But of course even going as high as 12 excludes players like Westbrook and Harden. I’m sure you’ve given it thought and so far every idea I come up with (such as deviation plus floor) is cumbersome. Nor is that suggestion practical because it would exclude a player seeing an uptick in minutes because of an injured starter.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Usage is on the depth chart tab and it’s based on the last 12 days of games just like the depth chart numbers. Agreed that the Standard Deviation filter is a bit clunky. It’s something that probably should get standardized so that players who score more aren’t naturally going to have higher st. dev. numbers. It’s also probably more valuable at the overall lineup level rather than individual players – because for cash games you want your overall risk to be low. It’s something we’re working on.

  • sportstats

    Nice work. I have a suggestion that you might want to consider. Why not use the coefficient of variation instead of standard deviation as a filter? Or at least add it as another option. To me that might make more sense because it normalizes things for various players. For example, using a standard deviation of 11 would filter out both D.J. Augustin and James Harden. I would be more comfortable dealing with Harden’s +/- two standard deviations than with Augustin’s. A cv cutoff value of .5 would eliminate Augustin, but not Harden.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – that’s a good idea. It’s something I’ve thought about, but hadn’t really found the best way to implement it yet

  • Rob Ford

    excel sheet was working great for first couple weeks, last couple days been pretty questionable though. kept putting reggie jackson in optimal lineup other night after he had been traded and refreshed date and now putting toney douglas in lineup for tonight even though hes been waived?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yeah, it’s going to take a day or two for the sheet to get fully calibrated after the trade deadline changes since it’s based on historical results. Make sure you use your own research and plug in player adjustments if something looks off to you. It’s meant to be flexible if a projection is different than what you think it will be

  • mark

    I downloaded the file on my phone and I can’t get to it to function I see everything but the refresh button or any other button what am I doing wrong.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Unfortunately, it’s not going to work on your phone. It requires Excel on a desktop or laptop. Advanced functions in Excel like the Solver plugin and macros are not supported in the mobile version of Excel.

  • luke

    Is this thing a little buggy? I just ran the optimal lineup and got a team with a salary of over 60000, when my limit for draftkings is 50000. Plus it looks like on the demo the example optimal lineup returned a lineup that wasn’t under the limit as well. am i doing something wrong here???

    • spreadsheetsports

      Nope – it works if you have all the settings right. In the top left of the Projections tab make sure you have the Fantasy Site setting set to the correct site. Also make sure you have the Solver plugin installed and enabled. You should see a box that says Keep Solver Solution at the end. If you dont follow the instructions on the Troubleshooting Tips tab

      • luke

        Thanks for your response. I got it figured out last night but couldn’t find this message board to update my post. All set now!

  • David Ciolfi

    I am trying to refresh and it gets stuck on Schedule……..whats the deal

    • spreadsheetsports

      The website that hosts the schedule data may have been briefly down when you tried to connect to it. It should run fine now.

  • Christopher T. Bowen

    Have you every considered having with the adjustments to adjust the estimates for players based on the MAPE over some defined period of time say (5 days, 15 days, season, etc…)

    • spreadsheetsports

      I’m not sure I fully understand what you mean. So you’re saying that you should optimize the mean error to a shorter time frame? What advantage would that give over optimizing over a larger dataset?

      • Christopher T. Bowen

        My thought is that short term variations, change in role and such may show up as a higher average error in the near term as you’ll approach the overall mean over any large data set. I’m thinking of it to remove short-term volatility.

      • Christopher T. Bowen

        But I guess I can do the same thing changing the weighting for one of the other buckets. Just getting used to the tool and plan to use baseball once the season starts.

  • Rob Scott

    My solver won’t work. I get a solver problem,bug every time I click Find Optimal Lineup. It adds 3-4 players to the optimal lineup then adds players that aren’t even playing then day. Can you help?

    • spreadsheetsports

      It sounds like you might have a couple of issues. If you’re getting an error message on the Solver button that says ‘Compile Error’ you should follow the instructions on the Troubleshooting Tips tab. If you haven’t downloaded the latest file from the site – you need to grab that because that might explain why players that aren’t playing are included on the sheet. I update the file every Monday so you should always grab the new file for the week. Shoot me an email if that still doesn’t solve your issue.

  • bob

    The salaries are not updating in both fanduel and dk. Can you help me fix this? I hit the refresh tab and nothing changed

    • spreadsheetsports

      Take a look at the tabs labeled FanDuel and DraftKings. There are troubleshooting tips in the top right. See if you can follow those steps. You may be on a network that does not allow access to Google Docs in which case you won’t be able to refresh the salaries. Please email me bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com and I can give you more information on options to get around that.

  • Tony Laud

    I just bought The Draftkings version today and when I select “Find Lineups” I get “MACRO ERROR AT CELL: [SOLVER.XLAM]EXCEL4FUNCTIONS!25” I also own the Fanduel version and have no issues like that with it.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Hmm – there shouldn’t be any difference in the way the file works between FanDuel and DraftKings. I’ve never seen that specific error. Did you try downloading a clean sheet and possibly opening Excel first and doing a File > Open from inside Excel to get the file open (instead of opening directly from the download)? It looks like you may not have the Solver plugin fully enabled so you may want to follow the steps on the Troubleshooting Tips tab. If you can’t get it working – please email me a screenshot of what you’re seeing and let me know what version of Excel you’re using (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com).

  • Ron

    Hi Bryan, Having some trouble with Solver and multiple optimum lineups. Gettin error 9 everything is the latest and the filenames are correct.

  • Sneakyb97

    Hey Bryan, It looks to me that some names are missing in the Usage Rate adjustment. For example Greg Monroe is not listed on the Depth Chart Tab for Detroit, therefore we’re missing out on some sizable usage differences.

    • spreadsheetsports

      So the Depth Chart tab is built by looking at the last 12 calendar days of games and takes the average playing time for each player in that time period. It’s a pretty short view so it can be as current as possible on rotations. In this case, Greg Monroe hasn’t played in over 2 weeks so he’s not considered part of the depth chart. There have been enough games played without him that Last 5 minutes and other adjustments should already take that into account. It’s not perfect, but I that’s the best way I’ve found to set it up.

      • Sneakyb97

        OK, I appreciate the explanation. Keep up the good work!

  • Dark Savior

    Anybody else having trouble with refreshing data today on the NBA tool? The only game showing up after refreshing is the CHI-CLE game and the optimizer is only including players from that game due to all players from the other game being given a 0 projection. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

    • spreadsheetsports

      You should be able to add the 2nd game in manually beneath the CHI/CLE game. Let me know if that works out

    • spreadsheetsports

      Scratch that – I just uploaded a new file to account for the updated schedule. Grab the new file and you should be good to go.

      • Dark Savior

        Great! Works like a charm once again. Thanks!

  • Peter

    Is the VBA code accessible?

  • Paul

    When I refreshed today it showed all games on today’s game refresh tab but when I go to projections tab it is only showing players from last nights game which is causing the optimal lineup to be messed up. Please advise.

  • Jason Lowery

    Is there a certain time of day to refresh the historical stats? The refresh doesn’t seem to get the most up-to-date stats. From what I can see the previous night’s game is not factored into averages.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Historical stats are added in the next day, but there’s not a definitive time on when they’ll get loaded. It will always be prior to game lock the next day. The difference is only going to affect players on back-to-backs anyways.

  • Tyrone

    I have a Mac and I can’t figure out how to refresh data I don’t understand they instructions

  • Jason Lowery

    What site serves as the source of the data on the season stats tab? The numbers don’t quite line up with the Draftkings actuals – even after adding the Draftkings adjustment in column AR.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Can you give me an example of what is not lining up? What column are you trying to match to an external source? You’re likely not going to see exact averages for DraftKings scoring because everything starts with the basic FanDuel scoring and DraftKings gets adjusted based on the historical 3’s and double-double/triple-double bonus, etc. that are slightly different than FanDuel. For the sake of projecting what’s going to happen in the future, the DraftKings adjustment is the best method rather than recalculating all of the different exact averages for both sites. So think of the DraftKings adjustment as the exact average players have gotten historically from the stats that are different than FanDuel. It’s going to assume those stats stay consistent for predicting future games.

  • ZacMc

    I am having issues getting my optimal lineup to reflect under the Salary Cap. I am using the Draftkings sheet and the “Fantasy Site” is set Draftkings. However, when I run the Optimal Lineup, the results seem t always be over the 50k team limit. Not sure if I am missing something or what. Any advice?

  • Jason

    Hello – I love the spreadsheet so far and have tried using it daily. The last couple of days, however, when I run the Optimizer, it comes back with a list of min salary players who dont even get minutes and only uses a portion of the $50k. Did I click something wrong?

    • spreadsheetsports

      It sounds likely that something went wrong. I’d recommend downloading a fresh sheet from the website and trying it from there. If you still get the same issue shoot me an email with the error saved: bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com. Also, make sure you have the Solver plugin fully installed

      • Jason

        Fresh sheet is working, thanks! There was no error message, which I thought was strange, but it is working now anyway.

  • Eric

    Hi – Today’s lineups are setting GSW starters as non-starters and reducing their custom projections down to 0. Downloaded a new sheet and the same thing is happening. Thanks.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Just uploaded a new file to fix this issue. If you re-download from the site you should see it fixed

      • Eric

        Thanks for the quick reply. Small item I see in your player pool is that there are a few players with the same abbreviation and that seems to impact the vlookup on the depth charts so it states that Jerian Grant and Seth Curry, for instance, are starters where as both are bench players but there are other players with the same abbreviation is used for another starter. Full list of those players:

        S. Curry

        M. Morris

        J. Holiday

        J. Johnson

        J. Smith

        J. Grant

        J. Young

        No big deal and not a deal breaker but thought I would point it out to address some time in the future. Thanks for all the work on the sheet, it is a great tool and I can see how much effort was put into it.

        • spreadsheetsports

          That’s a good catch. I will see how I can handle these. It should really only come into play if you’re using the Filter for Starters only to filter out all bench players, but if you don’t use that then it shouldn’t matter

  • Matt Newton

    On DK, how do you use the Flex field in Lineup Generator? For example, if I had 4 RB’s…2 could be under the RB spot, but the other 2 could potentially be a Flex spot. Do I put them all under RB? Can I leave the Flex spot open?

    • spreadsheetsports

      For your official lineup you can use any RB, WR, or TE in the Flex. However, you have to specifically list your pool for RB’s WR’s and TE’s separately from your pool for flex players. Finding all of the different possible combinations with a flex is more than Excel can handle.

  • David Gerber

    for some reason my refresh isn’t working it is giving me teams that are not playing tonight. Is anyone else getting this problem?

  • Jason Kusic

    This is my first time using the nba draftkings projection tool today and just have one issue. When I went to the player adjustment tab and attempted to adjust minuets on individual players the projected minuets box would not populate when I typed in a player name, I have checked to make sure the spelling matches what you have in your system and have tried this for multiple different players and it is still leaving this box blank. Is this something that is supposed to stay blank? If so is there and area that I can see the projected minuets so that I know if I need to adjust up or down? Thanks for any help you can provide

    • spreadsheetsports

      My only thought is that maybe the refresh process didn’t fully work for you? Do you see the correct players for tonight’s games listed on the Projections tab with a valid projection? Other than that, I don’t see anything wrong with the Player Adjustments tab. As soon as you type a player’s name into cell A3 on that tab you should see his projected minutes populate. Check the tab labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide for issues with the refresh.

      The only other thing I can think of is if you have Excel set to manually calculate instead of automatic. Check on Formulas > Calculation Options and make sure it’s set to Automatic. If that doesn’t help, try downloading a fresh file and trying that and if it still doesn’t work you can send me the file to take a look (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com)

      • Jason Kusic

        Thanks for the quick response downloading a fresh file fixed the issue for me. I love the product so far hoping for for some good results tonight.

  • Brandon McKowan

    When I hit “Find Optimal Lineup” (NBA) I get an error message – “Compile Error: Can’t find project or library”- and a bunch of windows pop up. When I hit OK and try to close it all out I get another error message – “This command will stop the debugger” How do I resolve this? I just signed up for your site and would like to test it out today.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Please see the tab in the spreadsheet labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide. That issue is explained directly there. You can also email me directly (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com) with any additional questions

  • Cheryl Tibbs

    When I hit send to multiple line up sheet, I keep getting a dialog box that says runtime error 8 and the options are end, debug and cancel

    • spreadsheetsports

      Please see the tab in the spreadsheet labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide. The specific steps for that issue are explained there. Let me know if that doesn’t help. (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com)

  • Douglas Lewis

    today is the first time i have used this…and i confess to being an excel challenged person….i got the todays games to refresh but i when i click find optimal lineup absolutley nothing happens and no players are chosen….what am i doing wrong?

  • Douglas Lewis

    why is the fan duel optimal line up picking players well in excess of the 60k salary cap?? and its not even picking players for al positions…..i really could use some help here

  • JokerMaster

    I keep getting a #value for the vegas spots on the projections page what do I do?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Are you on Excel 2016 for Mac? If so, there are Excel 2016 specific instructions for Mac users on the refresh tab in the spreadsheet. If not, can you send me a screenshot or the full file with the error so I can see what the problem might be? bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

      • JokerMaster

        I also keep getting this error when I run optimal lineup

        Run-time error ’53’:

        File not found: Solver32.dll

        • spreadsheetsports

          That sounds like you don’t have the Solver plugin installed. That is covered in the tab labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide.

          • JokerMaster

            I have it installed… I sent u a picture u should see it on the tab on the right of the picture. Let me know what I need to do please.

  • Matthew Burnette

    Why I run “find optimal lineup” for Fanduel, it is only using 40k-50k of the cap space

    • spreadsheetsports

      It sounds like you may not have the Solver plugin installed. Please see the tab in the spreadsheet labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide for instructions on your specific version of Excel. Also, if you have the All Sites Tool make sure you have the Fantasy Site setting at the top left of the Projections tab set to DK

      • Matthew Burnette

        I did install the Solver Plugin and restarted the application. I ran lineup again and get the screenshot below. I read the guide and even though I installed the Solver plugin, I do not see the Solver icon in the toolbar of Excel. Possibly a work computer restriction on adding plugins?

        • Matthew Burnette

          PG Kyle Lowry 0.00 $9,300 0.00 TOR SAS
          PG Chris Paul 0.00 $8,600 0.00 LAC MIL
          SG James Harden 0.00 $10,800 0.00 HOU WAS
          SG Jimmy Butler 0.00 $8,200 0.00 CHI BOS
          SF #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
          SF #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
          PF #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
          PF #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
          C Andre Drummond 0.00 $9,200 0.00 DET MEM

          Total #N/A #N/A

          • spreadsheetsports

            I would recommend downloading a fresh file and working from there. It looks like something is zeroing out all of the Projections. If you have issues with the fresh download – please save the spreadsheet with the errors and email it to me at bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • lloyd

    I follow all the instruction and im still unalbe to generate multiple line-ups

    • spreadsheetsports

      What is happening instead? Are you getting an error message? I’m assuming you have the Multi-Lineup Optimizer and Projection Tool both open in Excel and you’re sending data from the Projection Tool to the Multi-Lineup Optimizer and then finding lineups in the Multi-Lineup Optimizer. Let me know what error you’re running into along the way.

      • lloyd

        im getting the run time error subscript out range

        • spreadsheetsports

          If you’re getting subscript out of range then there’s an issue with one of your file names. They need to be saved on your computer exactly as they were when you first downloaded them from the site. When you get that error and click on Debug it will show you exactly what the file name should be. The tab in the spreadsheet labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide has full details.

  • George Lugo

    i love the solver the only problem is i have draft kings on the tab but the solver seems to put the lineup at way over 50,000 is there any way we can change that?

    • spreadsheetsports

      It sounds like the Solver plugin isn’t fully working on your machine if that’s the case. There’s a tab labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide in the spreadsheet that should help you get that fixed. If not – shoot me an email with the error message you’re getting when you click on Find Optimal Lineup (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com)

  • Christopher Aaron Gray

    Hey, I purchased your spreadsheet the other day. I’m still pretty new to excel. I was trying to create my own, but then ran into your site and it was exactly what I was trying to do. I’m having problems generating lu’s though. The information will refresh and all. But it just shows error when I try to generate any lu. Any ideas on what I should do?

    • spreadsheetsports

      Yes – you’ll need to install the Solver plugin. See the Excel Troubleshooting Guide tab inside the spreadsheet for full instructions

      • Christopher Aaron Gray

        Yeah. I already have solver. I’m familiar with it. I’ve used it on some of the other spreadsheets I’ve made already. Just not familiar with macros. Like I said, when I try to generate the lu, it gives me an error, and I think it takes to where the error needs to be fixed, but I don’t know what needs to be done.

        • spreadsheetsports

          If you look at the Excel Troubleshooting Guide tab it should have solutions to many of the common errors covered there. If your error isn’t on there shoot me an email with a screenshot or the full error text. bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • Jason Lowery

    When I downloaded this week’s NBA tool columns A-O on the ‘Schedule’ worksheet were all blank, causing the Vegas numbers to default to 195, 0, etc. Last week these columns were populated but the refresh didn’t update Vegas numbers. I was inputting them manually but without A-O I can no longer do that. Any idea why this happened?

    • spreadsheetsports

      There’s a problem with the site that feeds the vegas data so we’re now using the tab labeled Backup Schedule for columns A-O. The update schedule may be a bit slower if they don’t have the data updated at night for the next day, but should still be in place by 9 or 10am every day. We’re working to get everything resolved so we can resume using the Schedule tab.

  • Dan

    Keep getting excel ran out of resources attempting to calculate one or more formulas. I keep having to hit ok over and over again. Not only that but the line ups are not very good. The top 5 players are good but the bottom 3 are crap. I mean they are projected for 9 points ? And there is 600 dollars left in spending … Also why doesn’t it have the positions of Foward, Guard or Util ?

  • Dan

    Tried uploading a fresh file. Now I get this : Error Message: Exception from HRESULT: 0x800A03EC About to give up on this

    • spreadsheetsports

      Please see the tab in the spreadsheet labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide. The solution to this error is explained there. Also, be sure to install the Solver plugin first.

  • Dan

    I did read the troubleshooting guide and tried to apply fixes. When I use the solver it does work up until I hit the solve button. I then get this error message : Run-Time Error ’53’ File not found Solver32.dll

    • spreadsheetsports

      So it looks like there’s an issue with the Solver plugin when you installed it. Here’s what you can try:

      1. Go back through the steps of installing the Solver plugin. This time uncheck Solver. Close Excel fully. Open Excel back up and go through the steps again and this time make sure Solver is checked. This should reinstall the Solver plugin.

      2. If that doesn’t work, go into Add-Remove programs on your computer and find your Microsoft Office/Microsoft Excel program. Right click and choose Repair.

      After that, go back through the steps to run the Reset Solver file first. Let me know if that helps. You can email me directly at bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • Dan

    I appreciate all the heklp here. I am close now to getting this to work. For anyone else my issue was the other add ons were disabled as well. I am using excel online. Meaning I don’t have the physical program on my drive.

    The only issue I have now is the optimal lineup is not using the full salary for draftkings . It is using 43k and my last 3 picks are horrid players. One of the picks has a projection of 0. I downloaded a fresh copy but still have same problem.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Unless they’ve upgraded their service – I don’t believe our sheet fully works in Excel online. Does anything actually happen when you click the “Find Optimal Lineup” button? If not – I would try going to the Data tab in the top ribbon and clicking on Solver – then in the pop-up box hit Solve (when you’re on the Optimal Lineup tab). Let me know if that works for you. If not you’ll need to be on the full version of Excel as an application rather than on the web.

  • Marc B.

    I purchase the spreadsheet yesterday followed all the direction for fixing the problem with errors. Nothing suggested seems to work. Receiving run time error 53 file not found solver 32.dll. This is very frustration because you site states that this spreadsheet is easy to use might be if it worked. This issues is with the NBA excel sheet, please advise what to do other than telling me to use the link, been there tried that.

  • robert prater

    i’m just starting to use excel and it seems some players are marked at the wrong position and injured or players not playing are still slated like whiteside. any suggestions on how to edit it ? just pretend like your telling a child because i know very little about excel

  • robert prater

    wtf? so I know nothing about excel and really can’t figure this out.

  • Corey Oberthaler

    SInce I figured out the solver earlier in the week, I keep getting someone added in lineup everyday with no projected points and a salary of around 3k. How do I fix that?

    • spreadsheetsports

      I would try re-downloading the sheet and starting from a fresh one. If the issue still occurs save the file with the error and email it to me and I’ll take a look and see what’s going on. That shouldn’t be happening. bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

  • Zeb Beason

    Hi, I downloaded the spreadsheet yesterday and for the most part got everything going. My only problem is when I hit the find optimal lineup button, it gives me a error, even after adding the solver plug in and closing excel and reinstalling the spreadsheet. I can do the solver manually through the data tab and it works, but takes a hour to generate a lineup. I have not changed any of the criteria for how the lineups are generated, so I don’t think that would be whats affecting the length of time it takes to solve. It does solve for multiple lineups within a minute or two on that page. I’m running excel 2013 for windows… any idea whats going on here? Thanks!

    • spreadsheetsports

      What error are you getting when you click on the Find Optimal Lineup button? If you can send me a screenshot (bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com) that will help me see what’s going on. Excel 2013 for Windows should run the sheet really fast so something is not working correctly.

      • Zeb Beason

        Actually, everything started working perfectly with those issues. I do have a new question though… When using the multiple lineups tool, is there anyway to export the multiple lineups to were I can import them directly into drafkings? When I export them to csv, and try to import, draftkings tells me there is a error. I assume there has to be a easy way to import 50 lineups, rather then punching each one in?

        • spreadsheetsports

          With all of the changes in bulk uploading lineups this season – I haven’t been able to modify the final output file to work with DraftKings official lineup upload tool. That’s something I’m working on, but it’s not quite ready yet.

          • Zeb Beason

            Ok, thanks and good luck!

  • louisx20

    anyone else having an issue with the tool today? It was working fine for me and now I get N/A’s and the total salary is way off.

    • spreadsheetsports

      Check out the tab labeled Excel Troubleshooting Guide. You may have an issue with the Solver plugin. You may also want to download a fresh sheet in case something got messed up in your current version. Send me an email with a screenshot of what you’re seeing if that doesn’t help. bryan@spreadsheet-sports.com

      • louisx20

        thanks Bryan. Just tried it again today and it’s working fine. Must have been something in my settings.